UK opposes US blockade, backs reopening of Strait of Hormuz
## Market Snapshot Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement market currently prices a 40.5% YES probability of blockade lift by May 31,...
probability
Bitcoin ETFs see $819.7M inflows amid US-Iran ceasefire
## Market Snapshot Bitcoin price targets market currently shows a 0.4% YES probability for reaching $80,000 in April. This reflects...
Ray Dalio warns US stagflation risk amid Iran conflict impacts inflation
## Market Snapshot In the “Fed Rate Cuts Predictions for 2026” market, the probability of no rate cuts occurring is...
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
Iran’s refusal to compromise at the negotiating table has dropped the probability of it surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile by...
Iran proposes military control of Strait of Hormuz, raising tensions
Iran’s proposal to formalize military control of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed the probability of traffic returning to normal...
Iran faces crude oil storage crunch, potential forced output cuts looming
Iran is running out of crude oil storage capacity, raising the probability of forced production cuts, while the Bank of...
Iranian diplomat Araghchi may meet US officials, WSJ reports
Iranian diplomat Araghchi might meet with the US side, according to WSJ. The probability of a diplomatic meeting occurring by...
Iranian foreign minister leaves Pakistan without US meeting
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi departed Pakistan without meeting a US delegation. The probability of a US-Iran meeting by April 25...
Iranian foreign minister leaves Pakistan without US meeting
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi departed Pakistan without meeting a US delegation. The probability of a US-Iran meeting by April 25...
Iranian foreign minister leaves Pakistan without US meeting
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi departed Pakistan without meeting a US delegation. The probability of a US-Iran meeting by April 25...
Iranian regime projects unity, reducing collapse expectations
Iran’s leadership is projecting unity following Trump’s remarks, pushing the probability of the Iranian regime falling by May 31 down...
US tightens grip on Iran with new sanctions, policy shift unlikely by April
The probability of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief by April has dropped to 10%, down from 20% just...
Eurozone PMI falls to 48.6, raising potential for ECB rate cut
The Eurozone’s April Composite PMI came in at 48.6, below the expected 50.1, raising the probability of an ECB rate...
Iran calls US naval blockade an “act of war,” demands forceful response
Iran has labeled the U.S. naval blockade as an “act of war,” demanding a forceful response. The probability of a...
Trump sees ceasefire extension unlikely without deal, market skeptical
Trump declared a ceasefire extension “highly unlikely” without a deal. The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April...
