Iran asserts permanent control over Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions
## Market Snapshot In the “Strait of Hormuz Ship Transit” market, the probability of 20 ships transiting the strait on...
probability
Somali terror groups escalate piracy in Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising security risks
## Market Snapshot In the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure market, the probability of an effective closure by May 31 is...
Iran seizes two ships, reducing Strait of Hormuz traffic amid tensions
## Market Snapshot In the “Strait of Hormuz Ship Transit” market, the probability of 20 ships transiting the strait on...
Iran accuses US of killing civilians, raising airspace closure risks
## Market Snapshot Iran’s airspace closure market shows a 22.5% YES probability for closure by May 8, up from 14%...
Iran threatens European bases amid rising geopolitical tensions
## Market Snapshot Fall of the Iranian Regime market currently shows a 2.6% YES probability for May 31, indicating a...
Bitmine stakes $10.2B in Ethereum amid geopolitical tensions
## Market Snapshot Ethereum Price on May 5 market shows a 99.9% probability of resolving YES, indicating strong confidence in...
Strait of Hormuz closure fuels oil price surge amid global shortages
## Market Snapshot Crude Oil Price Predictions by June market indicates a 100% probability of crude oil hitting $90 by...
Strait of Hormuz closure fuels oil price surge amid global shortages
## Market Snapshot Crude Oil Price Predictions by June market indicates a 100% probability of crude oil hitting $90 by...
Bitcoin surpasses $80k amid low on-chain activity, up 22% in 5 weeks
## Market Snapshot In the Bitcoin Price on May 4 market, the probability of Bitcoin being less than $68,000 is...
Russia warns of missile strike on Kyiv if Victory Day disrupted
## Market Snapshot In the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions market, the probability of a ceasefire by the end of 2026 is...
Iranian missile interceptions in Dubai impact S&P 500 market sentiment
## Market Snapshot The prediction market for the S&P 500’s movement on May 4 currently prices a 0.1% probability of...
Iran reviews US peace proposal aiming to halt ongoing conflict
## Market Snapshot The market on the fall of the Iranian regime before 2027 shows a 2.8% YES probability, down...
Middle East tensions drive oil above $100, impacting global inflation outlook
## Market Snapshot In the ECB interest rate market for April 2026, the probability for a 50+ bps decrease remains...
Bitcoin tops $80,000 as Clarity Act nears Senate vote, new Fed chair expected
## Market Snapshot Bitcoin markets are pricing a 99.9% probability that its price will remain above $66,000 on May 7,...
UKMTO warns of increased naval activity in Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran tensions
## Market Snapshot In the “Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement” market, the probability of a YES outcome is currently at 35.5%,...
