Trump asserts Iran operations don’t need congressional approval amid tensions
## Market Snapshot The “US Invasion of Iran” market currently reflects heightened probabilities of military action, influenced by recent statements...
Snapshot The
Trump ends Iran hostilities, hints at possible future military action
## Market Snapshot The “Trump out as President by April 30?” market is priced at 0.1% YES, showing stability after...
Iran ramps up diplomatic outreach amid US meeting prospects
## Market Snapshot The “next US x Iran diplomatic meeting” market currently shows an increase in the likelihood of a...
Muted shipping through Strait of Hormuz amid stalled US-Iran talks
## Market Snapshot The market for “Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz...
Manufacturing ISM report shows price surge, employment drop amid Fed rate cut talk
## Market Snapshot The “Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?” market currently lacks definitive pricing data. “Will the...
Kashkari warns oil shock could lead to Fed rate hikes amid Iran conflict
## Market Snapshot The “Fed Decision June and July” market is currently pricing a 2.9% likelihood of a 25 bps...
Iran responds to US deal amendments via Pakistani mediators: Axios
## Market Snapshot The “US-Iran Ceasefire” market currently shows a 0.1% likelihood for a YES outcome, unchanged from the previous...
James Comey indicted for threats against Trump, arrest seen as imminent
## Market Snapshot The “James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026” market is currently observing a significant increase in YES...
US-Iran conflict fuels WTI crude oil price hike expectations for May 2026
## Market Snapshot The market for WTI Crude Oil prices in May 2026 currently shows expectations for price increases, driven...
Trump considers pulling US troops from Italy, Spain amid NATO tensions
## Market Snapshot The “US Withdrawal from NATO Timeline” market currently prices a 1.4% likelihood of the U.S. withdrawing by...
Microsoft boosts 2026 capital spending to $190B amid AI demand
## Market Snapshot The prediction market for whether Microsoft will become the largest company by market cap on December 31,...
Trump briefed on military options as Iran conflict escalates
## Market Snapshot The “US Invasion of Iran” market is currently observing increased activity, with pricing supportive of a YES...
UN warns Hormuz crisis disrupting global markets amid US-Iran tensions
## Market Snapshot The market concerning Donald Trump announcing the lifting of the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz...
Pentagon pauses War Powers clock amid Iran ceasefire, de-escalation efforts
## Market Snapshot The market for a U.S. declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026, is currently priced...
CLARITY Act expected to reach President’s desk this summer, says Tim Scott
## Market Snapshot The XRP price market for April 30 is currently priced at 100% YES for XRP being within...
