Saudi mediation in Lebanon stalls amid internal divisions, impacting Israel withdrawal
## Market Snapshot The “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026” market is currently priced at 2% YES, down...
Snapshot The
UK local elections test Labour’s leadership amid two-party system breakdown
## Market Snapshot The “Starmer out by June 30, 2026” market currently shows a 40.5% YES pricing, up slightly from...
Spirit Airlines confirms shutdown amid regulatory, geopolitical pressures
## Market Snapshot The prediction market for Spirit Airlines’ shutdown by May 31 is currently priced at 100% YES. This...
ECB, BOE signal rate hikes amid rising oil prices and inflation concerns
## Market Snapshot The market for whether the ECB will announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting...
Russia, Ukraine dispute Sumy region control amid ongoing conflict
## Market Snapshot The “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026” market is currently pricing a decrease in the...
US blockade cripples Iranian economy despite fragile ceasefire
## Market Snapshot The market for “Iran closes its airspace by May 8” is currently priced at 20.5% YES, down...
North Korea cyber threats heighten risk of $1.2B crypto hacks in 2026
## Market Snapshot The “Total Crypto Hack Value in 2026” market is currently evaluating the likelihood of exceeding a $1.2...
US federal debt reaches record $39T amid economic growth concerns
## Market Snapshot The prediction market for US GDP growth in Q1 2026 is currently priced at 100% YES for...
US warns against paying Iran for Strait of Hormuz passage, raising tensions
## Market Snapshot The WTI Crude Oil Prices market for May 2026 currently shows uncertainty about reaching the $150 threshold,...
Iran sets one-month deadline for US negotiations amid nuclear tensions
## Market Snapshot The market for “Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?” currently prices at...
Iran-US hostilities expected to resume, impacting Hormuz blockade market
## Market Snapshot The “Next US x Iran Diplomatic Meeting” market currently has an uncertain YES pricing for dates around...
Iran submits 14-point proposal to US, aims to reopen Strait of Hormuz
## Market Snapshot The market for a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026, is currently priced at 32% YES,...
Hormuz deadlock persists as Trump faces War Powers deadline
## Market Snapshot The market for “Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz...
Trump dismisses Iran proposal, signals continued diplomatic impasse
## Market Snapshot The market assessing whether the US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 is currently priced at...
Trump reviews Iran proposal amid potential diplomatic shift
## Market Snapshot The “next US x Iran diplomatic meeting” market is currently inactive with no recent volume, awaiting developments....
