China denies Trump’s claim of Iranian ship as ‘gift,’ complicating visit plans
China has dismissed President Trump’s claim that an intercepted Iranian ship was a “gift from China.” The diplomatic dispute has...
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Hezbollah dismisses Trump’s Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extension as ‘meaningless’
Hezbollah called President Trump’s three-week extension of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire “meaningless.” The market for an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30...
China dismisses Trump’s claim on Iranian ship, tensions rise
China dismissed Trump’s claim that an intercepted Iranian cargo ship was a “gift from China.” The odds of Trump visiting...
Trump announces indefinite ceasefire with Iran, oil prices decline
Trump’s indefinite ceasefire announcement with Iran has pushed oil-linked prediction markets lower. The probability of WTI Crude Oil hitting $160...
Five officials exit Trump’s Cabinet amid Iran conflict
At least five officials have exited President Trump’s Cabinet and U.S. military leadership since the Iran conflict began. The market...
Iran’s IRGC seizes ships in Strait of Hormuz after Trump extends ceasefire
Iran’s IRGC has seized vessels in the Strait of Hormuz following Trump’s ceasefire extension. The market for the UK sending...
Trump’s actions spark fears of global arms race, says Major General Manner
Major General Randy Manner says Trump’s actions have sparked fears of a global arms race. The odds of Trump agreeing...
Iran commutes death sentences for eight women protesters amid tensions
Trump’s Truth Social post reveals Iran will not execute eight women protesters. The Iranian regime fall by April 30 market...
Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely, shifts focus to diplomacy
Trump’s indefinite extension of the US-Iran ceasefire has moved prediction markets sharply. The odds for a formal ceasefire by April...
Trump unlikely to extend Iran ceasefire as deadline looms
Trump’s statement on the ceasefire extension has pushed the odds of a US-Iran ceasefire ending by April 21 down to...
Iran denies Trump’s negotiation claims amid diplomatic stalemate
Trump’s claims of active negotiations with Iran have been denied by Iranian officials, with US-Iran diplomatic meeting odds sitting below...
Trump warns of bombings if Iran ceasefire expires, traders brace for conflict
Trump’s ultimatum about bombings if the ceasefire with Iran lapses has driven the odds of a ceasefire extension by April...
Trump’s potential Islamabad visit coincides with drop in US-Iran peace deal odds
Trump’s potential visit to Islamabad for talks with Iran’s president has coincided with a sharp drop in peace deal odds....
Trump vows retaliation after Iran shoots down US F-15 jet
Trump’s angry response to Iran’s shootdown of a U.S. F-15 jet points to continued conflict. The market for military action...
Trump’s social media posts disrupt US-Iran peace talks, April deal odds fall
Trump’s social media posts mixing profanity and Islamic prayer have rattled US-Iran negotiations, pushing the odds for a permanent peace...
