Iran’s foreign minister in Islamabad as US envoys head to region
Iran’s Foreign Minister is in Islamabad, with US envoys also en route. The odds of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by...
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Iran seizes containership in Strait of Hormuz, escalating US tensions
Iran’s seizure of the containership Epaminondas in the Strait of Hormuz has escalated tensions with the US. The odds of...
Bitcoin surpasses $77,500 amid US-Iran ceasefire, Strategy’s $2.5B buy
Bitcoin’s price climbed above $77,500 as of April 23, 2026, pushing the odds of a dip to $60,000 in April...
Senator Murphy praises Iranian ships as US-Iran peace deal odds decline
Senator Chris Murphy praised Iranian ships for evading a US blockade, and the odds of a permanent US-Iran peace deal...
Qatar Airways resumes flights to Dubai, Sharjah, Damascus amid Iran tensions easing
Qatar Airways has announced the resumption of daily flights to Dubai, Sharjah, and Damascus, and odds of countries conducting military...
US seizes ships aiding Iran as Hormuz blockade expands
The US is now intercepting and seizing ships aiding Iran beyond the Strait of Hormuz, and the odds of Trump...
Ian Bremmer: Trump loses leverage in Iran talks, oil sanctions relief unlikely
Ian Bremmer claims Trump has lost all leverage in the Iran negotiations. The odds of Trump agreeing to Iranian demands...
Over 100 Basij members poisoned in Tehran, one dead, others hospitalized
Someone poisoned over 100 Basij members in Tehran, killing one and hospitalizing others. The odds of the Iranian regime falling...
Iran ceasefire boosts Bitcoin speculation, $80K contract surges
The Iran ceasefire has doubled Bitcoin’s odds on Polymarket, with the Bitcoin $80,000 in April contract now at 76% YES,...
US halts $500M Iraq oil shipment to curb Iran-linked militias
The US has stopped a $500M shipment of Iraq’s oil dollars to curb Iran-linked militias, and odds for a US-Iran...
Bitcoin surpasses $79k amid US-Iran-Israel tensions
Bitcoin has surged past $79,000 as US-Iran-Israel tensions escalate, pushing the odds of Bitcoin reaching $80,000 by the end of...
Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire, but formal peace deal remains unlikely
President Trump has extended the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, but odds of a formal cessation of hostilities by April 30 have dropped...
Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely, shifts focus to diplomacy
Trump’s indefinite extension of the US-Iran ceasefire has moved prediction markets sharply. The odds for a formal ceasefire by April...
Strait of Hormuz blockade escalates US-Iran tensions, disrupts energy supply
The Strait of Hormuz blockade and an intensifying US-Iran standoff are pushing ceasefire odds lower. Ceasefire by April 30 is...
Pakistan’s diplomatic push impacts US-Iran ceasefire odds as deadline nears
Pakistan’s diplomatic push to salvage US-Iran talks has driven down ceasefire odds. The market for Trump announcing the end of...
