Warsh’s Senate testimony boosts US 10Y yields, dims Fed rate cut hopes
Kevin Warsh’s Senate testimony has moved US 10-year Treasury yields, and the Polymarket odds of a 25 basis point Fed...
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Bitcoin falls below $75,500 amid US-Iran tensions
Bitcoin slipped under $75,500 as U.S.–Iran tensions escalated, pushing the odds of Bitcoin reaching $80,000 in April down to 33.5%...
Trump extends Iran ceasefire, cites fractured Iranian government
Trump has extended the Iran ceasefire, citing a “fractured” Iranian government. The odds of the US announcing an end to...
Iran executes man for mosque burning amid crackdown on protests
Iran executed a man for burning a mosque during January protests. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by May...
Trump unlikely to extend Iran ceasefire as deadline looms
Trump’s statement on the ceasefire extension has pushed the odds of a US-Iran ceasefire ending by April 21 down to...
Trump warns of bombings if Iran ceasefire expires, traders brace for conflict
Trump’s ultimatum about bombings if the ceasefire with Iran lapses has driven the odds of a ceasefire extension by April...
Iran refuses US peace talks, dims hopes for Trump meeting by April 30
Iran has publicly refused to attend peace talks with the U.S., pushing odds on a Trump-led meeting with Iran by...
UAE seeks US financial aid amid escalating Iran conflict
The UAE has requested financial support from the US as the Iran conflict intensifies. The odds for Trump agreeing to...
Vessels attacked in Strait of Hormuz, raising energy supply disruption fears
Vessels came under fire in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, pushing odds that 80 ships will transit the...
Iran rejects second round of US talks, impacting uranium enrichment market
Iran has refused to participate in a second round of talks with the US, according to IRNA. The odds of...
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, impacting oil markets amid supply concerns
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has rattled oil-related prediction markets, but the odds of WTI Crude Oil hitting...
US deploys sea drones to counter mine threats in Strait of Hormuz
The U.S. military has deployed autonomous sea drones to address mine threats in the Strait of Hormuz. Odds for 80...
Strait of Hormuz traffic remains blocked as ceasefire expiration looms
The odds of Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by April 30 sit at 21.5% YES, reflecting trader skepticism as the...
Iran, US issue conflicting statements on Strait of Hormuz
Iran and the US issued contradictory statements about the Strait of Hormuz, pushing the odds of a US-Iran permanent peace...
Pakistan mediates US-Iran talks, impacting diplomatic meeting odds
Pakistan’s diplomatic push to mediate US-Iran talks has moved odds on Polymarket. The “no qualifying meeting by June 30” market...
