US-Iran ceasefire odds drop to 1.1% as military plans escalate tensions
The U.S. and Israel’s joint plans to target Iran’s nuclear facilities have slashed the odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by...
Prediction Markets
US and Israeli officials seek to weaken Iran’s enrichment amid ceasefire uncertainty
U.S. and Israeli officials aim to weaken Iran’s uranium enrichment before ending hostilities. The odds of a ceasefire by April...
US and Israeli officials seek to weaken Iran’s nuclear program amid ceasefire talks
U.S. and Israeli officials aim to weaken Iran’s nuclear capabilities before ending military actions. The odds of a ceasefire by...
Bitcoin spot ETFs attract nearly $500M as BlackRock leads institutional interest
Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted nearly $500 million on Monday, with BlackRock leading the charge. Odds for Bitcoin hitting $100,000 by...
Bitcoin spot ETFs see $500M inflows as optimism grows for $100K target by June 30
Bitcoin spot ETFs, led by BlackRock, saw nearly $500M in inflows on Monday. The market for Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by...
Iranian missile incident raises doubts about regime fall odds, now at 13.5%: FT
An Iranian missile broke apart midair over Haifa, overcoming Israeli defenses and resulting in four civilian deaths. The “Iranian regime...
Iran missile strike in Haifa raises regime stability odds to 13.5% by June 30
An Iranian missile strike in Haifa resulted in an interception failure, killing four civilians. The odds for the Iranian regime...
Negotiators doubt Iran will meet Trump’s deadline, risking US escalation
Negotiators doubt Iran will meet Trump’s deadline on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Ceasefire by April 7 is at 1.1%...
Negotiators doubt Iran will meet Trump’s deadline to reopen Strait of Hormuz
Negotiators are skeptical that Iran will meet Trump’s deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by April 7. Ceasefire odds...
Iran’s regime collapse odds rise to 13.5% as superpower tensions escalate: FT
Iran is now a focal point for superpower tensions, similar to Ukraine and Taiwan. The odds of the Iranian regime...
Iran regime collapse odds rise to 13.5% as geopolitical tensions escalate: FT
Iran has become a focal point for superpower tensions, similar to Ukraine and Taiwan. The odds of the Iranian regime...
Prediction Market Boom Continues With Polymarket and Kalshi Leading $25.7B Month
Key Takeaways:Image source: Dune.com The Dune dashboard indicates that Kalshi sees heightened activity across economics, financials, and politics, while also...
Iran’s 10-point response to US peace plan shows skepticism in markets
Iran has issued a 10-point response to the US peace plan, emphasizing security guarantees, ending regional conflicts, and lifting sanctions....
Ceasefire odds plummet to 1% as Iran vows retaliation against Israel
Iran has warned of retaliation following Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure, while Iran targets Gulf sites. Ceasefire odds for April...
Odds of US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 drop to 1.1% amid ongoing military actions
Iran’s threat of retaliation and ongoing strikes on Gulf infrastructure have slashed the odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April...
