South Korea joins talks to ensure safe passage through Strait of Hormuz
## Market Snapshot The “Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement” market is currently priced at 27.5% YES, down from 28% 24 hours...
priced
US Treasury targets Iranian exchange houses amid rising tensions with Iran
## Market Snapshot The prediction market for Bitcoin being above $66,000 on May 7 is priced at 99.9% YES, unchanged...
US Treasury targets Iranian exchange houses amid rising tensions with Iran
## Market Snapshot The prediction market for Bitcoin being above $66,000 on May 7 is priced at 99.9% YES, unchanged...
US intelligence reports limited new damage to Iran’s nuclear program
## Market Snapshot The “US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31” market is priced at 14.5% YES, slightly higher from 14%...
Iranian drone attacks on UAE pressure US bond market, yields surge
## Market Snapshot Ethereum Price on May 5 is priced at 100% YES across all sub-markets, suggesting stability despite geopolitical...
Oil prices surge as US-Israel-Iran tensions disrupt supply routes
## Market Snapshot Crude oil price predictions for June are currently priced at 100% YES for hitting $90, reflecting consistent...
Qatar condemns Iran attack on UAE, strengthens Gulf unity
## Market Snapshot UAE and Qatar Diplomatic Relations in 2026 market is currently priced at a lower likelihood of YES....
Spirit Airlines shuts down, JetBlue offers rescue fares after bailout denial
## Market Snapshot The “Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31” market is currently priced at 100% YES. This reflects a...
Diamondback boosts shale output amid Iran conflict, oil prices surge to $120
## Market Snapshot Crude oil price predictions by June are currently priced at 100% YES for hitting $90. Despite Diamondback’s...
White House mulls AI model vetting amid US-China tech tensions
## Market Snapshot Anthropic Mythos Provision to US Government market is currently priced at 100% YES for all sub-market dates,...
China defies US sanctions, imports Iranian oil amid nuclear deal tensions
## Market Snapshot The US-Iran nuclear deal market is currently priced at 14.5% YES, slightly increased from 14% over the...
Spirit Airlines ceases operations amid soaring fuel costs from Iran conflict
## Market Snapshot The prediction market for Spirit Airlines’ shutdown by May 31 is currently priced at 100% YES. This...
Israel ready to resume military operations against Iran, awaits US approval
## Market Snapshot The “Fall of the Iranian Regime” market is currently priced at 3.1% YES, a slight increase from...
Nagel warns prolonged conflict may sustain eurozone inflation, complicating ECB policy
## Market Snapshot ECB’s April 2026 interest rate market is priced at 100% YES for a 50+ bps decrease. Current...
BitMNR buys $238M in Ethereum amid US-Iran tensions, Tom Lee declares ‘crypto spring’
## Market Snapshot Bitcoin Price on May 4 market is currently priced at 0.1% YES, consistent over the last 24...
