Lebanese MPs push for demilitarized Beirut amid ceasefire talks
Lebanese MPs have agreed to push for a demilitarized Beirut, an unexpected move with direct relevance to several Polymarket contracts....
Prediction Markets
Goldman Sachs files for Bitcoin Premium Income ETF with SEC
Goldman Sachs filed for a Bitcoin Premium Income ETF with the SEC on April 14. The Polymarket contract on Bitcoin...
Fitch flags 15% of European leveraged finance at risk from Iran conflict
Fitch has flagged 15% of European leveraged finance as at risk from Iran conflict spillover. The Polymarket contract on whether...
Global crude exports drop 9M b/d amid Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz blockade
Global crude exports have dropped by over 9 million barrels per day year-over-year due to the ongoing conflict involving Iran...
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards signal military readiness, raising conflict concerns
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards declared a “finger on the trigger” readiness, signaling potential military escalation. The April 21 ceasefire end market...
DAZN to Embed Blockchain-Backed FIFA Prediction Market in World Cup 2026 Live Streams
Key Takeaways:A Controversial Sprint From Gibraltar License to DAZN Deal Prediction and betting components are going to be significantly more...
IEA warns of oil price spikes if Strait of Hormuz remains closed
IEA chief warned markets about major price spikes if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened, but the WTI Crude Oil...
Congress blocks measure to limit Trump’s military action against Iran
A party-line vote in Congress blocked a measure that would restrict President Trump’s authority to escalate military actions against Iran....
Third AC-130J Ghost Rider gunship arrives in CENTCOM area
A third AC-130J “Ghost Rider” gunship has arrived in the CENTCOM area. The Polymarket contract for US forces entering Iran...
Robert Pape warns US policy risks UAE stability without change
Robert Pape warns of limited US options, risking UAE stability without policy change. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April...
Netanyahu coalition stuck at 49 seats, opposition holds 61-seat majority: poll
Netanyahu’s coalition is stuck at 49 seats for a third week, with the opposition holding a stable 61-seat majority, according...
Iran regime collapse risk repriced as strategic failures mount
Reports of Iran’s strategic failures and significant damage have moved traders to reprice regime collapse risk. The odds for the...
Macron, Starmer to co-chair summit on Strait of Hormuz security April 2026
Macron and Starmer will co-chair a summit to secure the Strait of Hormuz on April 17, 2026. The market for...
US expands blockade to target Iran’s shadow fleet, signaling oil export crackdown
The US blockade now targets Iran’s “shadow fleet,” extending enforcement beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Strait of Hormuz traffic normalcy...
Trump claims victory as Iran agrees to 14-day ceasefire
President Trump declared a “total and complete victory” with Iran agreeing to a 14-day ceasefire, while the Polymarket contract on...
