Third AC-130J Ghost Rider gunship arrives in CENTCOM area
A third AC-130J “Ghost Rider” gunship has arrived in the CENTCOM area. The Polymarket contract for US forces entering Iran...
Prediction Markets
Robert Pape warns US policy risks UAE stability without change
Robert Pape warns of limited US options, risking UAE stability without policy change. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April...
Netanyahu coalition stuck at 49 seats, opposition holds 61-seat majority: poll
Netanyahu’s coalition is stuck at 49 seats for a third week, with the opposition holding a stable 61-seat majority, according...
Iran regime collapse risk repriced as strategic failures mount
Reports of Iran’s strategic failures and significant damage have moved traders to reprice regime collapse risk. The odds for the...
Macron, Starmer to co-chair summit on Strait of Hormuz security April 2026
Macron and Starmer will co-chair a summit to secure the Strait of Hormuz on April 17, 2026. The market for...
US expands blockade to target Iran’s shadow fleet, signaling oil export crackdown
The US blockade now targets Iran’s “shadow fleet,” extending enforcement beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Strait of Hormuz traffic normalcy...
Trump claims victory as Iran agrees to 14-day ceasefire
President Trump declared a “total and complete victory” with Iran agreeing to a 14-day ceasefire, while the Polymarket contract on...
Iran war prolongs Germany’s economic stagnation, GDP forecast cut
Germany faces a fourth year of economic stagnation from the ongoing Iran war, with GDP growth forecasts halved to 0.6%...
Iran-US blockades in Strait of Hormuz heighten oil transit concerns
The ongoing blockades by Iran and the US in the Strait of Hormuz continue to raise concerns about oil transit...
US dollar declines as Iran peace talks reduce safe-haven demand
The U.S. dollar is in its second consecutive weekly decline as optimism around Iran peace talks reduces safe-haven demand. The...
G7 pledges economic stability amid Iran conflict, eyes on Bank of Japan policy
G7 finance ministers have committed to stabilizing the global economy during the ongoing Iran conflict, and the Polymarket contract on...
Trump invites Netanyahu, Aoun to White House for Israel-Lebanon talks
Trump invited Israeli PM Netanyahu and Lebanese President Aoun to the White House for talks, and the Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting...
Pentagon shakeup continues with ouster of Army Chief Gen. Randy George
The Pentagon’s leadership shakeup continues with the ouster of Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George. The Gulf State military...
Trump-Meloni rift strains US-Europe ties amid NATO withdrawal speculation
President Trump’s falling out with Italy’s Giorgia Meloni is adding strain to US-Europe relations, and the Polymarket contract on US...
Anthropic releases Claude Opus 4.7, resolves Polymarket contract YES
Anthropic has released Claude Opus 4.7, resolving the Polymarket contract on whether the model would ship by May 31, which...
