Hezbollah refusal to disarm complicates Israel ceasefire prospects
Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm is complicating prospects for an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, though the June 30 ceasefire market still sits at...
Prediction Markets
Iran backs Hezbollah, complicating Israel-Lebanon diplomacy prospects
A top IRGC commander has restated Iran’s support for Hezbollah, adding friction to diplomatic prospects between Israel and Lebanon. The...
Iran backs Hezbollah, complicating Israel-Lebanon diplomacy prospects
A top IRGC commander has restated Iran’s support for Hezbollah, adding friction to diplomatic prospects between Israel and Lebanon. The...
Germany’s Merz confirms partial mining of Strait of Hormuz, impacting ship transit
Germany’s Merz stated that the Strait of Hormuz is partially mined. The market for 80 ships transiting by April 30...
Germany’s Merz confirms partial mining of Strait of Hormuz, impacting ship transit
Germany’s Merz stated that the Strait of Hormuz is partially mined. The market for 80 ships transiting by April 30...
US-Iran peace deal odds plummet as diplomatic progress stalls
The US-Iran “no peace, no war” stalemate shows no signs of breaking. The permanent peace deal by April 30 market...
US-Iran peace deal odds plummet as diplomatic progress stalls
The US-Iran “no peace, no war” stalemate shows no signs of breaking. The permanent peace deal by April 30 market...
Trump holds national security meeting on reopening Strait of Hormuz
Trump plans a national security meeting today to review reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of Trump agreeing to...
IRGC claims neutralization of 15 US missiles in Hormozgan
The IRGC says it neutralized over 15 US heavy missiles in Hormozgan, and the Kharg Island control market has dropped...
IDF finds Hezbollah weapons cache in children’s bedroom in southern Lebanon
The IDF discovered a Hezbollah weapons cache in a children’s bedroom in southern Lebanon, but the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire...
MegaETH token to launch April 30 with $1.6B valuation
MegaETH is set to launch its token on April 30 at a $1.6 billion fully diluted valuation (FDV). Polymarket odds...
US airlift boosts military presence in Gulf amid stalled Iran talks
The U.S. has ramped up its military presence in the Gulf with a large overnight airlift of assets, signaling a...
Iran proposes opening Strait of Hormuz without nuclear deal
Iran has proposed opening the Strait of Hormuz without a nuclear agreement, and the market on Trump announcing the US...
UAE demands $3.5B loan repayment from Pakistan amid Iran mediation efforts
The UAE demanded immediate loan repayment from Pakistan as Pakistan attempts to mediate the US-Israel war on Iran. Gulf State...
Lazarus Group hacks KelpDAO, pushes April DeFi losses over $600M
A $292 million hack drained funds from a DeFi bridge this month, pushing cumulative April losses above $600 million. The...
