Hezbollah rockets target schoolchildren, escalating Israel-Hezbollah conflict
Hezbollah rockets targeted schoolchildren in Western Galilee, escalating the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 market...
Prediction Markets
Iran continues oil loading at Kharg Island despite US blockade
Satellite data shows Iran loading oil at Kharg Island, maintaining control despite the US blockade. Kharg Island no longer under...
Iran war impacts circuit board supply, traders reassess oil positions
Crude oil all-time high by April 30 trades at 1% YES, down from 2% a week ago, as the Iran...
Iran reinstates currency subsidies amid economic turmoil
Iran has reinstated currency subsidies for essential goods, drawing from its sovereign fund to stabilize its economy during ongoing war....
Israel breaches Gaza ceasefire 2,400 times, truce stability in doubt
Israel breached the Gaza ceasefire more than 2,400 times in six months, putting the truce’s stability in doubt. The Netanyahu...
Drone incursion from Lebanon triggers sirens in northern Israel
Sirens sounded in northern Israel following a drone incursion from Lebanon. On Polymarket, the contract for Israel announcing a suspension...
OpenAI GPT-5.5 release by April 30 market confidence
Social media chatter pointing to GPT-5.5 being ready for everyday tasks has pushed the GPT-5.5 release by April 30 market...
USS Gerald R. Ford’s deployment confirms US strikes in Venezuela, Iran in 2026
The USS Gerald R. Ford’s 300+ day deployment, which included capturing Venezuela’s President and conducting strikes in Iran, confirms U.S....
Iran demands end to US naval blockade before nuclear talks
Iran’s latest proposal calls for lifting the US naval blockade before starting nuclear negotiations. The market for Iran agreeing to...
Kim Jong UN pledges continued military support for Russia
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un affirmed continued military cooperation with Russia, supporting Moscow’s policies as reported by state media...
Sen. Tillis lifts block on Fed chair nominee Warsh, clearing path for confirmation
Sen. Thom Tillis has removed his hold on Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Federal Reserve Chair. Warsh’s confirmation by May 15...
Bitcoin climbs toward $80K amid US-Iran Strait of Hormuz tensions
Bitcoin’s slow climb toward $80,000 continues as traders digest US-Iran Strait of Hormuz tensions, with the Bitcoin all-time high by...
Bennett and Lapid form Beyachad party to challenge Netanyahu in 2026 elections
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid are forming a new party called Beyachad to challenge Netanyahu’s hold on power. The Polymarket...
Mojtaba Khamenei named Iran’s Supreme Leader, stabilizing regime outlook
Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as Iran’s Supreme Leader has pushed down the odds of a regime fall by May 31, with...
Iran proposes bypassing leadership disputes on nuclear concessions
Iran’s proposal to sidestep internal leadership disputes over nuclear concessions has moved prediction markets. The chance of a US-Iran nuclear...
