Third assassination attempt on Trump during White House Correspondents’ Dinner
A third assassination attempt on Donald Trump reportedly occurred during the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. The market for Trump winning...
Prediction Markets
Iran-US peace talks collapse, crude oil market remains steady
Iran-US peace talks in Islamabad broke down, drawing attention to crude oil markets. The Polymarket contract for WTI Crude Oil...
Iran cites energy leverage as US-Iran peace deal odds drop
Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf suggested Tehran retains leverage against the US, citing “energy and shipping cards.” The US-Iran...
IRGC Quds Force chief vows support for Hezbollah amid Israel ceasefire
The IRGC Quds Force chief promised continued support for Hezbollah, though the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 market sits at...
Trump warns Middle East conflict could destabilize markets
Trump warned against escalating Middle East conflict, citing market instability. The Polymarket contract for crude oil reaching an all-time high...
Nvidia’s market cap dominance odds steady despite US-Iran tensions, tariffs
Five of the Magnificent 7 tech giants report earnings this week during a period of U.S.-Iran tensions and a 15%...
Tillis backs Warsh for Fed Chair, removing key obstacle ahead of committee vote
Senator Thom Tillis has reversed his opposition and now supports Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair. The May 15...
Trump’s demand for US control of Iran’s nuclear material stalls deal prospects
Trump’s push for US control of Iran’s nuclear material has collapsed market odds. The US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30...
Iran warns of retaliation, raising crude oil supply disruption concerns
Iran’s Vice President Esmail Saghab Esfahani warned of retaliation against countries supporting attacks on Iran’s infrastructure. The Crude Oil Predictions...
Trump hints at Iran peace talks, June 30 deal market splits YES
Trump’s recent comments about a potential end to the Iran conflict and willingness to negotiate by phone have moved prediction...
Iran conflict pressures central banks, traders reassess Bitcoin outlook
Investors are watching for potential bond sell-offs as major central banks confront war-driven inflation pressure. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin...
Iran conflict disrupts oil supply, Strait of Hormuz closure impacts markets
The Iran conflict has put oil supply dependencies back in focus. The crude oil all-time high by April 30 market...
Polymarket Study Finds 3.14% Drive Accuracy
Key Takeaways: Researchers from London Business School and Yale found only 3.14% of Polymarket accounts qualify as skilled, yet generate...
Federal Reserve Set to Hold Rates at 3.75% as Traders Price 99% Odds for April 29 FOMC
Key Takeaways:Source: CME Fedwatch tool on April 26, 2026.Source: Polymarket on April 26, 2026.Source: Kalshi on April 26, 2026. Both...
Netanyahu orders forceful attacks on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has directed his forces to “forcefully” attack Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. The odds of a...
