Iran leadership split on Trump’s uranium demands, nuclear deal unlikely by April 30
Axios reports internal disagreement within Iran’s leadership on Trump’s uranium demands. The market for a US-Iran nuclear deal by April...
Prediction Markets
Islamabad signals progress in US-Iran conflict resolution talks
Islamabad has indicated progress toward a broader regional agreement, potentially advancing the “Islamabad process” aimed at resolving the 2026 Iran...
Japan’s 20-year bond yield rises amid tighter monetary policy expectations
Japan’s 20-year JGB yield increased by 2.5 basis points to 3.320%, consistent with tighter monetary policy expectations. On Polymarket, the...
US-Iran talks stall, Trump signals possible escalation
The US-Iran negotiations have hit a snag, with the Trump administration signaling possible escalation if no deal is reached. The...
China expands economic pressure on US amid Iran conflict
China is expanding economic pressure tactics against the US as the Iran conflict continues, and Polymarket odds on Trump visiting...
White House firm on Iran nuclear stance as deal odds plummet
Axios reports the White House insists Iran will never possess nuclear weapons. The odds of a US-Iran nuclear deal by...
US-Iran talks stall as US envoys withdraw from Islamabad negotiations
CNBC reports that US-Iran talks have stalled, with US envoys withdrawing from Islamabad negotiations over Iran’s rigid demands. Iran agreeing...
US cancels envoy trips as Iran peace deal market plummets
The cancellation of US envoy trips to Iran has driven the April 30 peace deal market down to 2% YES,...
Bitcoin jumps $1K on Binance amid US-Iran conflict tensions
Bitcoin shot up over $1,000 within a minute on Binance amid the U.S.-Iran conflict. The April Bitcoin price market reflects...
China-backed ceasefire stabilizes Iran amid regime change speculation
The odds for an Iranian regime fall by June 30 sit at 8.5%, slightly up from 8% yesterday, as Washington...
Keir Starmer vows to lead Labour despite Mandelson scandal pressure
Keir Starmer has publicly committed to leading Labour into the next general election, and the market on whether he leaves...
Iran says Strait of Hormuz will not return to previous state amid US distrust
Iran says the Strait of Hormuz will not return to its previous state, citing distrust with the US. The Polymarket...
Trump warns Iran of potential oil shut-ins within three days
Trump suggested Iran faces potential oil shut-ins within three days. Trump’s agreement to Iranian oil sanction relief in April is...
Two-thirds of Israelis dissatisfied with Netanyahu’s leadership, survey shows
A new survey shows two-thirds of Israelis are dissatisfied with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership. On Polymarket, the odds of...
Iran proposes new formula to revive talks with US
Al Mayadeen reports that Iranian officials propose a new formula to revive talks with Washington. The market for a US-Iran...
