Trump threatens to destroy Iran’s infrastructure if talks fail
President Trump threatened to destroy Iran’s infrastructure if negotiations fail, pushing the US-Iran ceasefire breakdown market to 99.6% YES, up...
USIran
Iran, US issue conflicting statements on Strait of Hormuz
Iran and the US issued contradictory statements about the Strait of Hormuz, pushing the odds of a US-Iran permanent peace...
Pakistan mediates US-Iran talks, impacting diplomatic meeting odds
Pakistan’s diplomatic push to mediate US-Iran talks has moved odds on Polymarket. The “no qualifying meeting by June 30” market...
Pakistan prepares for US-Iran peace talks with increased security
Pakistan has begun preparations for a new round of US-Iran peace talks, with increased security in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. The...
Democrats fail to block Trump’s Iran actions, peace deal by April 22 uncertain
Democrats failed to block Trump’s military actions in Iran, and the US-Iran permanent peace deal market for April 22 now...
Traders see US-Iran conflict resolution, oil prices hit $90 amid disruptions
Traders are pricing in a growing likelihood of US-Iran conflict resolution, with the odds of a permanent peace deal by...
Trump threatens airstrikes if US-Iran ceasefire deal not reached by April 21
Trump warned he will resume airstrikes if the US-Iran ceasefire doesn’t produce a deal by April 21. The ceasefire extension...
Antalya Quartet backs Pakistan’s mediation in US-Iran talks
The Antalya Quartet has endorsed Pakistan’s mediation efforts between the US and Iran, but the market for a US-Iran diplomatic...
Trump announces US-Iran joint uranium excavation plan
Trump’s announcement of a US-Iran joint excavation to retrieve enriched uranium has moved prediction markets. Odds for the US obtaining...
Trump announces US-Iran uranium extraction partnership at ‘leisurely pace’
Trump announced a U.S.-Iran partnership to extract enriched uranium at a “leisurely pace,” and the market for US obtaining Iranian...
Iran rejects US ceasefire terms, tensions rise amid ongoing hostilities
The likelihood of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 21 sits at 5.5% YES, pressured by active hostilities and Iran’s rejection...
Pakistan seeks to host next US-Iran talks amid ceasefire extension efforts
Pakistan is pushing to host the next round of US-Iran talks, a move that could advance ceasefire extension negotiations. The...
IMF warns of global economic risks from US-Iran conflict amid Hormuz tensions
IMF members are set to warn about the global economic risks posed by the US-Iran conflict later today. The market...
Spain blocks US base access amid Iran tensions, impacting oil markets
Spain’s refusal to allow US access to its military bases during rising US-Iran tensions has shifted crude oil markets. Crude...
Trump’s Iran comments shake Bitcoin markets as traders brace for volatility
Trump’s ambiguous comments on US-Iran talks have rattled Bitcoin markets, with the probability of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April...
